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Thoughts of a Federal Reserve Economist

 

Lon Welsh, one of the owners at Your Castle Real Estate recently attended the Apartment Association Economic conference. One of the speakers was an Economist at the Federal Reserve. Here are the highlights of his talk…
 
— This recession was very, very severe.  The US economic expansion is now 18 months old – unsatisfying but has been stable, consistent, and as good as we could reasonable hope for.
 
— The Colorado recovery has been about as fast as the US average.  We’re below average on job creation, but Denver is above average on other economic indicators (e.g., retail sales growth).
 
— Essentially no risk of double dip recession.
 
— Big risk we could have a “short expansion” of 36-48 months  and start another recession in 2013.  That would be a real problem.
 
— Don’t expect residential real estate to grow quickly … and we still may not be at the bottom across US.